THE 10 BEST GAMES TO BET
BRONCOS at JETS
1 p.m., Jets by 7, 39
HANK’S HONEYS: It’s unlikely that the Broncos, with their flawed offense, can pull off two straight stunners on the road. Bo Nix showed improvement last week, but the rookie was up against an injury-decimated defense. This week, he’ll be facing a top tier pass rush that has accumulated 14 sacks in three games and a much better coverage unit. The Broncos haven’t done anything on the ground so far and when you have a one-dimensional offense led by a rookie QB, that’s not a good formula. Aaron Rodgers may not have unlocked the downfield passing game yet, but he diced and sliced a pretty good Patriots defense, manipulating the secondary in vintage style while displaying the ability to get outside the pocket once again. While we love the Jets to cover the TD, they haven’t scored more than 24 points in any game and the Broncos are going to have a hard time getting to 14. The total is low, but we’ll bite and take the under.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Jets and the under.
STEELERS at COLTS
1 p.m., Steelers by 1 ½, 40
HANK’S HONEYS: It’s a strangely small line considering the mismatch between Pittsburgh’s defense and the mistake-prone Colts O. The Steelers are the first team to hold opponents to 10 or fewer points in each of their first three games since the 2009 Broncos. Anthony Richardson has struggled behind his O-line with a completion percentage under 50 and six interceptions. Even though the Steelers will be without edge rusher Alex Highsmith, they still have T.J. Watt to harass the QB. Justin Fields has been making the people in Chicago look pretty foolish, not that he’s had to do a lot with how the Steelers D has been playing. We’re going to keep hammering the under in Steelers games. This one shapes up the same way.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Steelers and the under.
RAMS at BEARS
1 p.m., Bears by 2 ½, 41
HANK’S HONEYS: Whoever set up the Rams’ schedule wasn’t very kind to them. It’s their third road game in four weeks as they criss-cross between the Midwest and far west. Plus, after shocking the rival 49ers last week, they are set up for a flat spot in Chicago. There has been nothing to like in Caleb Williams so far, but he hasn’t had any support from his running game. Things could open up a bit against a spotty Rams run defense that hasn’t replaced Aaron Donald’s presence in the middle. There will be a lot of eyes on him back in Los Angeles where he played for USC and it’s a good spot for him to show some potential. Matthew Stafford will still be without Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua and this a a good Bears defense.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Bears and the under.
VIKINGS at PACKERS
1 p.m., Packers by 2 ½, 43 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: Jordan Love’s possible return under center has padded the Packer money. But if he does play, he’s not going to have the same mobility on a rehabbed knee. Brian Flores has been very aggressive with his defense, and he’ll be coming after Love with blitz after blitz. Sam Darnold, who has been playing more like Sammy Baugh this season, gets back his No. 2 WR in Jordan Addison, which should take some of the attention away from Justin Jefferson, not to mention a motivated Aaron Jones in his return to Lambeau Field. Both defenses are playing well under the new coordinators, making this a strong under bet.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Vikings and the under.
JAGUARS at TEXANS
1 p.m., Texans by 4 ½, 45
HANK’S HONEYS: The Texans may be a bit disappointing so far, but the Jaguars have been abysmal, now coming off a beatdown by the Bills with a short week to turn things around. Doug Pederson seems to have lost the attention of his team (they outright quit for him Monday night) and Trevor Lawrence is 1-7 ATS in his last eight starts, looking lost in many instances. His two matchups with C.J. Stroud last year were disastrous as Stroud completed 70% of his passes for 484 yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions. Sluggish against the Bears and overwhelmed by the Vikings, the Texans are in good position to get things right this week. One cautionary note: the road team has won five straight SU.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Texans and the over.
EAGLES at BUCS
1 p.m., Eagles by 2 ½, 44
HANK’S HONEYS: The Eagles have to be feeling better about themselves after their late win in New Orleans. In general, Philly played a lot better than the margin of victory would indicate. Their defense stepped up played exceptionally against a Saints team that had been unstoppable for two weeks. It may be that they are finally adapting to Vic Fangio’s scheme. Now they’ll be looking for some playoff revenge. Baker Mayfield’s grit can only carry the Bucs offense so far while the depleted Bucs defense made even Bo Nix look good. Even without A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, the Eagles figure to move the ball. Tampa Bay can’t stop the run, which points to big days by Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Eagles and the under.
BENGALS at PANTHERS
1 p.m., Bengals by 5 ½, 47
HANK’S HONEYS: As it is with teams playing after their head coach has been fired, the Panthers got a boost with Andy Dalton replacing Bryce Young. The second week often brings that team back to Earth. We’re not in love with the line, but at some point, the Bengals are going to explode for a big win and with their season on the line, odds are that it’s this week. We’re not buying into the Dalton revenge factor. He had a nice career in Cincinnati. He didn’t part on bad terms. It could be somewhat a shootout and the total is reasonable so over seems the way to go.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Bengals and the over.
COMMANDERS at CARDINALS
4:05 p.m., Cardinals by 4 ½, 50 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: The bandwagon is forming for Jayden Daniels but this a tough spot for Washington, sky-high after bouncing the Bengals on Monday night now traveling on the short week across the country to face a more experienced QB in Kyler Murray. The Commanders’ secondary is still very sketchy and does not match up at all with Marvin Harrison Jr. Likewise, this Cardinals defense should put up more of an effort than the Bengals did. The Cardinals are better than their record indicates. They narrowly lost to two powerhouse teams and showed everyone a glimpse of their potential when they beat the Rams in Week 2. They need this win and they’ll be ready for a bounce-back game.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Cardinals and the over.
CHIEFS at CHARGERS
4:25 p.m., Chiefs by 7, 40
HANK’S HONEYS: This is too many points to give a divisional rival playing at home. The Chiefs seem to squeak out wins every week with a zebra-aided 3-0 record. Their offense isn’t running at full speed, particularly Travis Kelce, and Jim Harbaugh is going to find a way to limit them and keep this close — he knows he can’t win a shootout. There’s good news for the Bolts on the injury front with Justin Herbert making progress. He still might be a little limited, but the Chargers aren’t relying as much on his big arm as in the past. Harbaugh has them playing a smash-mouth style of football that is perfectly suited to playing the Chiefs. He will run it until the scoreboard says he can’t.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Chargers and the under.
BROWNS at RAIDERS
4:25 p.m., Browns by 1 ½, 37
HANK’S HONEYS: The Raiders, who should have known better, were blindsided by the replacement quarterback theory, and were drilled by Andy Dalton and the Panthers. After some of the things that Antonio Pierce has been saying, they will come to play this week against a Cleveland team with bad vibes. Kevin Stefanski just doesn’t seem be working out as head coach. The offensive line stinks and has just seen its best player, Pro Bowl OG Wyatt Teller, put on IR. A below mediocre Deshaun Watson has been under siege, and his receivers keep dropping passes. Maxx Crosby may be a bit dinged up, not that he cares, but he can almost shut down this offense by himself.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Raiders and the over.
LOOK BUT DON’T TOUCH
BILLS at RAVENS
8:20 p.m., Ravens by 2 ½, 46 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: Situationally, the Ravens are the pick. The Bills have to be feeling almost too good about themselves, coming off back-to-back blowouts of the Dolphins and Jaguars, and are due for a letdown off a short week on the road. The Ravens got their first win in Dallas and are back home. They are, on paper at least, a better team than any of the Bills’ first three opponents. Nevertheless, the Bills are arguably playing like the best team in the league. Josh Allen isn’t missing Stefon Diggs or Gabe Davis and is developing chemistry with promising tight end Dalton Kinkaid. The Ravens almost blew a big lead against the Cowboys and seem to be missing their defensive mastermind Mike Macdonald.
CAN’T HELP YOURSELF?: Bills and the under.
BEST OF THE REST
SEAHAWKS at LIONS
Monday, 8:15 p.m., Lions by 4 ½, 47
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Lions and the over.
SAINTS at FALCONS
1 p.m., Falcons by 1 ½, 42
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Saints and the under.
PATRIOTS at 49ERS
4:05 p.m., 49ers by 10 ½, 40
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Patriots and the under.
TITANS at DOLPHINS
Monday, 7:30 p.m., Titans by 1 ½, 37
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Dolphins and the over.
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WEEK’S BEST BET: Texans. Pederson’s days numbered.
LAST WEEK: 7-9, 8-8 over/under
OVERALL: 22-25-1, 28-19-1 over/under
BEST BETS: 1-2