A recent U.S. intelligence assessment warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin is more determined than ever to carry on the war in Ukraine and prevail on the battlefield, according to a senior U.S. official and a senior congressional official.
The analysis, which was communicated to members of Congress this month, indicated the agencies see no sign Russia is ready to compromise on Ukraine as President Donald Trump seeks to broker peace talks.
The assessment is consistent with how U.S. and Western intelligence agencies have viewed the Russian regime’s stance since February 2022, when Putin ordered an unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, according to two other people with knowledge of the matter.
But Putin is now believed to be more dug in than ever, according to the senior U.S. official and the senior congressional official.
Facing steep Russian troop losses and economic setbacks at home, he is committed to securing Ukrainian land and expanding his country’s footprint to justify the human and financial toll, the intelligence assessment found, according to the officials.
In a sign of Trump’s growing frustration, last week he called off a planned meeting with Putin in Budapest, Hungary, and for the first time since he returned to office in January he imposed punitive measures against Moscow, slapping sanctions on two major Russian oil companies.
“I just felt it was time,” Trump told reporters, describing the new sanctions as “tremendous” and adding that he had “waited a long time” to implement them but hopes “they won’t be on for long.”
“We hope that the war will be settled,” he said.
The White House declined to comment on the recent intelligence assessment and pointed to Trump’s public comments on efforts to reach a peace deal.
“As the president stated, these are tremendous sanctions against their two big oil companies which he hopes will help bring about the end of the war,” the official said in a statement. “He has been clear that it is time to stop the killing and make a deal to end the war. The United States will continue to advocate for a peaceful resolution to the war, and a permanent peace depends on Russia’s willingness to negotiate in good faith.”
Trump has long vowed to broker an end to the war in Ukraine, and as a candidate he promised he would secure peace within 24 hours of his return to office. But his efforts to persuade Russia to come to the negotiating table and agree to a ceasefire have failed so far.
Trump’s rhetoric has shifted in recent months, as he has expressed growing frustration and impatience with Putin, accusing him of failing to take action to back up positive statements made in their conversations.
“Every time I speak with Vladimir, I have good conversations, and then they don’t go anywhere. They just don’t go anywhere,” Trump said last week.
Trump even said publicly that he might provide long-range U.S-made Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine this month, though he later backed away from the idea after a phone conversation with Putin.
Ukraine has appealed to Washington for longer-range missiles to strike at targets inside Russia, and European powers have endorsed its request.
Ukrainian officials, European governments and Kyiv’s supporters in Congress have repeatedly urged Trump to exert pressure on Russia through arms shipments and sanctions to push Moscow to agree to a ceasefire and peace negotiations. The announcement of sanctions on Russian oil companies was the first time Trump has followed through on threats to introduce economic penalties against Moscow.
The new sanctions on Russia, Ukraine’s drone attacks on Russia’s oil and gas facilities and European efforts to provide more weapons to Kyiv’s forces could alter the Kremlin’s calculations over time, according to European diplomats, former U.S. intelligence officials and experts.
In August, the White House portrayed a summit in Alaska between Putin and Trump as a promising step toward possible peace negotiations. But the war has raged on, and Russia has stuck to the same hard-line demands that would effectively disarm Ukraine, ban it from joining the NATO alliance and block the deployment of any Western-led peacekeeping forces.