What Andrew Cuomo’s narrow path to a NYC comeback would look like: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, a newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

In today’s edition, Steve Kornacki explores how Andrew Cuomo could close the gap with Zohran Mamdani in the final week of the NYC mayoral race. Plus, Ben Kamisar digs into how Republicans are shifting more of their ad money down ballot in Virginia.

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— Adam Wollner

What Cuomo’s narrow path to a NYC comeback would look like

Analysis by Steve Kornacki

The New York City mayoral election may not be a done deal for Zohran Mamdani.

The Democratic nominee has enjoyed sizable leads in polling and benefitted from an opposition that’s been divided among multiple rival candidates. And he remains the favorite to win next Tuesday.

But there are signs Mamdani has not put the race away yet, chief among them a new Suffolk University poll that shows his lead over former Gov. Andrew Cuomo slipping to 10 points — half of what it was when the same pollster surveyed voters last month. That tightening comes after Mayor Eric Adams dropped his own re-election bid a few weeks ago, with much of his support now moving to Cuomo.

Overall, Mamdani leads with 44% support, with Cuomo at 34% and Republican Curtis Sliwa at 11%, according to the new Suffolk poll. That Mamdani’s support level remains under 50% four months after winning the Democratic nomination suggests some real resistance to his candidacy and leaves him vulnerable to any further consolidation of the opposition. Half of Cuomo’s support, the poll finds, is from voters who say they are simply voting against Mamdani.

Sliwa remains adamant that he won’t leave the race, and obviously the more support he retains, the safer Mamdani’s position will be. But there’s risk for Mamdani, a democratic socialist, in the volatility of this final week. The volume of attacks is louder, public scrutiny is heightened, and far more New Yorkers are tuned in to absorb it. Reservations about Mamdani that already exist can be reinforced and new ones can be sown. In this atmosphere, the danger for Mamdani is that voters recognize Cuomo as the only viable alternative and essentially do the consolidating themselves — that is, they shun Sliwa, hold their noses, and check off Cuomo’s name.

Extrapolating from pre-Election Day voting data can lead to deceptive conclusions, but it’s at least worth noting that the first few days of early voting in New York City have so far yielded an electorate that is older and broader than what was seen in the June Democratic primary. Any chance for Cuomo depends on this becoming a reality. In the Suffolk poll, he leads with voters over 45 years old and gets clobbered among those under 45.

Cuomo himself remains a highly imperfect vehicle for the opposition to Mamdani. He continues to be unpopular, with an upside down 42%/47% favorable rating. If this election is a referendum on him, he will lose, easily. And if he wins, it will be in spite of himself — and only because just enough voters ended up having even deeper reservations about his opponent.

Virginia Republicans are spending more on the race for attorney general than for governor

By Ben Kamisar

In states with high-profile governor’s races, candidates further down the ballot typically rely on the top of the ticket for a boost.

But in Virginia, that dynamic has been flipped on its head in the closing stretch of this year’s campaign, at least on the airwaves.

Republicans have spent more on TV ads in recent weeks on the race for attorney general — where past violent text messages by the Democratic nominee have roiled the race — than the higher-profile contest for governor, where the GOP candidate is the underdog.

The bulk of Republicans’ ad spending in these two races in the state, where campaign finance rules allow outside groups to donate directly to candidates, have come from Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, the gubernatorial nominee, and Attorney General Jason Miyares.

According to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact, Earle-Sears’ campaign spent more than $8.1 million on ads in September, compared to about $5.5 million from the Miyares camp.

But those numbers flipped in October — $10.2 million from Miyares and $7.5 million from Earle-Sears.

A week-by-week analysis of the ad spending in Virginia underscores how GOP spending has jumped in the attorney general’s race in the final month, as Democratic nominee Jay Jones has faced criticism for suggesting in private text messages three years ago that the then-Republican speaker of the state House get “two bullets to the head.”