Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill.
In today’s edition, national political reporters Bridget Bowman and Ben Kamisar watched hours of Vice President Kamala Harris’ past debates to get a sense of what she does on stage. Plus, Meet the Press moderator Kristen Welker breaks down the paths to 270 electoral votes.
Sign up to receive this newsletter in your inbox every weekday here.
Preparation, pitfalls and breaking the fourth wall: Takeaways from a decade of Harris debates
By Bridget Bowman and Ben Kamisar
Tuesday’s ABC News debate will be the first time Kamala Harris and Donald Trump come face-to-face — and only the third time she will face a Republican in a debate.
But her past debate appearances going back to 2010 provide some clues on how she plans to make her case against Trump and for her own candidacy — what techniques and tics she leans on, her potential vulnerabilities and other common threads stretching across years of state and national debates.
She previewed some of her go-to Trump criticisms during the 2020 presidential race, calling the then-president “corrupt” and “unpatriotic,” chiding his “weird” obsession with erasing Barack Obama’s accomplishments as president, and saying that Trump “doesn’t understand what it means to be honest” while looking directly at Trump’s running mate, Mike Pence, during the 2020 vice presidential debate.
“I’m speaking,” Harris repeated during that debate as Pence spoke over her.
And she often appears to come prepared with memorable one-liners and scores of statistics to make her case — and to make a moment that might get attention long after the debate finishes.
Harris has been diligently preparing for Tuesday’s debate between campaign stops and her White House duties, strategizing how to derail Trump and how to navigate his expected attacks.
“She knows that every word matters, every facial expression matters and the stakes are very high at this level,” said Brian Brokaw, a former Harris campaign aide.
One key theme across Harris’ past debates: It’s clear how much she prepares, often coming armed with highly specific policy and statistical details or attacks on her opponents.
That preparation has paid off with some big moments for Harris — as well as some that have fallen flat.
Kristen Welker breaks down the different paths to 270 electoral votes
By Kristen Welker
Steve Kornacki, other NBC News colleagues and I have broken down some different scenarios on our website about how Harris and Trump can get to 270 electoral votes to win the White House.
And you can do your own scenarios by clicking this link. But I wanted to highlight four of my own different paths — and why they’re worth thinking about.
Harris’ Sun Belt path
As Steve Kornacki notes, Donald Trump’s direct path to 270 votes is through the Rust Belt states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
But Harris has a counterattack — through the Sun Belt.
Say Trump wins in both Michigan (15 electoral votes) and Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes) — where the polling remains close. Well, Harris can still get above 270 electoral votes by winning Georgia (16 electoral votes), Nevada (6 electoral votes) and North Carolina (16 electoral votes).
Or say Harris also loses Nevada. She can still make up for it by winning Arizona and its 11 electoral votes.
Trump climbs the blue wall
But say Harris wins Nevada and North Carolina. Even in that scenario, Trump still has a path to 270 electoral votes — by sweeping Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and winning either Arizona or Georgia.
Harris’ dream path
If Harris really is Obama 2.0 and can keep her summer momentum going, she could end up with a map similar to Obama’s from 2008 and 2012. In that scenario, she wins the 2020 Biden expansion states of Arizona and Georgia — as well as Florida (which Obama won in 2008 and 2012) and North Carolina (which Obama won in 2008).
This gets Harris to a dream scenario of 348 electoral votes.
Trump’s dream path
By contrast, Trump’s dream scenario is his 2016 map — plus Nevada, New Hampshire, Minnesota and Virginia.
This path — which seemed more possible when Biden was still in the race, but feels far less likely now — gets him to 339 electoral votes.
Check out our full “Road to 270” tool here.
🗞️ Today’s top stories
- ✉️ Mail delay: North Carolina’s mail ballots were expected to be sent out on Friday, but that has been delayed after Robert F. Kennedy Jr. won an appeal seeking to have his name removed from the ballot. A Michigan appeals court also ruled Kennedy could get off the ballot there. Read more →
- ↩️ Another vote for Harris: Former GOP Rep. Liz Cheney said that her father, former Vice President Dick Cheney, will be voting for Harris. Read more →
- ⚖️ Sentencing delay: Trump was scheduled to be sentenced this month in the hush money case, but a New York judge on Friday delayed it until Nov. 26. Read more →
- 🎯 Campaign targets: Both Harris and Trump’s campaigns are targeting the small slice of voters who are still persuadable with economic messaging. Read more →
- 🗳️ Harris’ Key(stone) State: The presidential race could come down to Pennsylvania, and the state is proving to be Harris’ toughest battleground to win. Read more →
- 📺 Debate prep: The New York Times profiles Karen Dunn, the D.C. attorney who is preparing Harris for her debate Tuesday and who has plenty of experience getting Democrats ready for these moments. Read more →
- 🥗 ‘Incoherent word salad’: Trump was asked Thursday about his plan to address child care costs, and he stumbled through a lengthy answer. Read more →
- 🗣️ Walz sharpens his attacks: Walz slammed Trump and the GOP during a Pennsylvania rally Thursday, accusing the former president of “s— talking” the country. Read more →
- 👀 Mama Walz weighs in: There has been some Walz family drama surrounding the governor’s vice presidential bid, but Walz’s mother tells NBC News that she is supporting her son’s campaign and believes he will end up in the White House. Read more →
That’s all from the Politics Desk for now. If you have feedback — likes or dislikes — email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com
And if you’re a fan, please share with everyone and anyone. They can sign up here.